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Unexpected Return to Trade Surplus sees Brief Australian Dollar New Zealand Dollar Exchange Rate Bounce

Australian Dollar Exchange Rates

The Australian economy received a last-minute shot in the arm on Friday, which enabled the Australian Dollar to close the gap on a strong New Zealand Dollar.

Although NZD initially declined against AUD, the New Zealand Dollar found losses curbed by estimates that a national brain drain could boost the incomes of successful applicants in the country.

Christmas Comes Late – Australian Trade Surplus Provided Brief Boost to AUD NZD Exchange Rate

The Australian Dollar New Zealand Dollar exchange rate ticked lower on Friday, though this came after a prior advance by AUD.

The latest source of support for AUD came from November’s trade balance results, which defied negative forecasts and showed a rise from -1.12bn to 1.24bn; the first surplus figure since early 2014.

Offering his analysis was HSBC Australia Chief Economist Paul Bloxham, who said;

‘This should lift local incomes, corporate profits, tax revenues and flow through to wages growth [which] should support inflation and keep the Reserve Bank [of Australia] from needing to cut further’.

On the other side of ‘The Ditch’, the NZD AUD exchange rate has risen marginally, in spite of no data arriving since Wednesday.

The latest economic news from the country has offered some positivity, with the estimate coming that due to a growing skills shortage in New Zealand, incomes for successful jobseekers are likely to rise in tandem as a result, improving the inflationary outlook.

Australian Dollar New Zealand Dollar Exchange Rate Outlook: Positive Week ahead based on AU Forecasts

With New Zealand suffering the handicap of a barren data week coming up, the way is open for AUD NZD exchange rates to advance.

The first good news is expected on Monday morning, when the AiG construction results for December are due to inch up from 46.6 to 46.8. Later on in the morning, building permits in November are also due to rebound, from a prior -12.6% to 5%.

The next and last major AU data next week is Tuesday morning’s November retail sales results, which have a slight dip from 0.5% to 0.2% expected on the month.

NZD AUD Future Forecast: Long Wait ahead for Next NZ Data

The New Zealand Dollar Australian Dollar exchange rate is likely to be shifted primarily by the ‘Aussie’ in the near-term, given that the coming week is devoid of actual NZ data.

The next notable ecostats out of New Zealand aren’t due until January 17th, when the NZIER business confidence result for Q4 is due; as of writing, no forecasts have been made for the outcome, while the previous figure came in at 26%.

Looking further ahead, the second Global Dairy Trade price index of the month is due on the 18th, while the 19th has December’s Business NZ PMI due for release.

In the latter case, a supportive rise from 54.4 to 55.23 is expected, which could boost NZD.

Recent Interbank Exchange Rates

At the time of writing, the Australian Dollar New Zealand Dollar (AUD NZD) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.04 and the New Zealand Dollar Australian Dollar (NZD AUD) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.95.